Political Recap 016 - Updated December 4th 2007

It used to be all about Iraq, Iraq, Iraq. But now that we have made some progress on the ground it is time for the Democratic Party to shift strategy. It is now about the economy, and things are about to get better on the economy, so, it is time to start looking for another theme.

Update as of 12/04/2007, 0730 Pacific. We continue to write about The Huckabee Surge. He is the man with the Big Mo on his side and I do expect to see the other candidates ganging up on him soon. As per the latest Rasmussen tracker Mike Huckabee has pulled to within a single percentage point on a mano-a-mano vs Hillary Clinton. He was behind the Democratic Party front runner by 8 points during August and September. The latest telephone survey shows Hillary Clinton earning 46 percent of the vote while Mike Huckabee attracts 45 percent of the vote. Also on another Rasmussen tracker Mike Huckabee is now within striking distance on the National Poll only 3 percentage points behind the National front runner Rudy Giuliani. Note, it is fun to watch The Huckabee Surge, but we do have a long way to go and there are no solid front runners on the Republican Party, anything can and will happen.

Update as of 12/03/2007, 0740 Pacific. Good news coming from the country of Venezuela. Marxist-Leninist leader Hugo Chavez lost the referendum which was supposed to give him the power to run for president for life. What is surprising is the fact that Hugo Chavez accepted defeat and I saw him on the Latino television channel giving a speech and telling his followers to accept the defeat and to remain calm. The vote was a close one, 51 percent NO and 49 percent SI. This is his first electoral defeat ever. Venezuelans can see the light at the end of the tunnel, but he is still their president.

Update as of 12/02/207, 1410 Pacific. Thanks Inspired for the Bible Trivia Award, it is now posted on the sidebar and it will stay there for a long time. Thanks again.

Update as of 12/02/2007, 0845 Pacific.

Mike Huckabee. We continue to talk about the Big Mo here, and Mike Huckabee is the man with the Big Mo on his side. This man knows about making a comeback, in 2003 he lost 110 pounds, and barely two years later he has completed 4 marathons - the 2005 and 2006 Little Rock Marathons, the Marine Corps Marathon and the New York City Marathon - the Road Runners Club of America named him its ‘Southern Region Runner of the Year’ and USA Track & Field has named him their ‘Athlete of the Week’ for the country. As a long distance runner I know what it takes to complete ONE marathon. But this post is about politics, so, let's go to Iowa - with only one month to go before the Iowa caucuses - Mike Huckabee is now leading the poll in that state with 29 percent, a stunning 17 point rise since October. He is leading Mitt Romney by 5 points, and Rudy Giuliani by 16 points. As of now he is looking like the comeback kid, but a lot can happen in the next 4 weeks.

Barack Obama. Another surprise here. Barack Obama is now leading the national Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in Iowa by 3 points. Barack Obama is leading with 28 percent of the vote, Hillary Clinton is second with 25 percent of the vote, John Edwards is in third place - but within striking distance - with 23 percent of the vote. The poll shows the race is still a dog fight between the top three contenders. And again, a lot can happen in the next 4 weeks.

Original Post

Hostage Crisis. Yesterday we had a hostage situation at Hillary Clinton's local headquarters in Rochester, New Hampshire. The law enforcers did an outstanding job taking care of the situation and it is my hope that we will not see this fiasco repeated during the primaries or during the general election. As far as candidate Hillary Clinton, when the hostages had been released and their captor arrested, Hillary Clinton strolled out of her Washington home to meet the media, she was in total control and looked calm in the face of crisis. Hillary Clinton showed that she can face disorder in a most orderly manner. Hillary Clinton took a negative and turned it into a positive. You just don't want to hear this, but yesterday Hillary Clinton looked and acted presidential.

The BIG MO. In sports we talk about a team having momentum, when everything seems to work to the team's advantage. The same thing happens in politics. Right now we have one candidate with the BIG MO on his side. This man was considered out of the race a long time ago. But then the tide shifted to his side. The former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee is generating buzz, curiosity and speculation, and not only that, he is leading now on the Iowa polls, plus he is looking good in New Hampshire. Everyone is now talking about having the momentum, and the trick here is to carry that momentum for next couple of weeks. If he wins in Iowa, and then places 2nd or 3rd in New Hampshire, then all bets are off on the Republican primaries. Remember the man from Hope Arkansas? - no, not this one, but Bill Clinton - will Mike Huckabee become the next man from Hope, the next comeback kid?

Republican Party in Iowa, Iowa, Iowa. So, how are things looking for the Republican Party candidates in Iowa? As per the latest Rasmussen tracker on the Iowa caucus, the polls are showing Mike Huckabee leading the pack with 28% of the vote. Mitt Romney is second with 25% support, and everyone else far behind. The National front runner Rudy Giuliani is getting just 12% of the vote in Iowa, and Fred Thompson is the only other candidate in double digits getting 11% of the vote. But what about John McCain - he is getting only 4% support in the latest Iowa poll. Compared to the prior poll, the trend shows that Mike Huckabee has gone up and just about everybody else has gone down. How good are things going for Mike Huckabee? Well, the poll represents a twelve point increase from a Rasmussen poll conducted earlier in the month.

Democratic Party in Iowa, Iowa, Iowa. As per the latest Rasmussen tracker, the Iowa Democratic caucuses remain a three-person race that is far too close to call. Okay, let's get down to the numbers. Hillary Clinton is leading with 27% of the vote, followed by Barack Obama with 25% of the vote. John Edwards is within striking distance with 24% of the vote, and a distant fourth is Bill Richardson with only 10% of the vote. The man everyone wants for Secretary of State, Joseph Biden is way back with only 4% of the vote. Virtually no change on the polls since the start of the month of November.

New Hampshire. On the Republican side of the house this is a one person race. The latest tracker shows Mitt Romney with 34% support and a 19-point lead. Making the most of his home field advantage, Mitt Romney has steadily increased his lead from 15points earlier in November, 9-points in October and 3-points in September. The poll shows a virtual 3-way tie for 2nd place between Rudy Giuliani at 15% of the vote, at 15% of the vote, and Mike Huckabee with 14% of the vote. The significant change here is this, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain went down on the poll, while Mike Huckabee has gained 4 more percentage points in the past month.

New Hampshire. On the Democratic Party side of the house Hillary Clinton's lead over Barack Obama is now measured in single digits. Per the latest Rasmussen tracker Hillary Clinton is getting 33% of the vote while Barack Obama is getting 26% of the vote. John Edwards is third with 15% of the vote. And then we have Bill Richardson getting 9% of the vote. In early November Hillary Clinton was leading by 10 points, the lead is now down to only 7 points and anything can happen in the next couple of weeks.

Thanks for reading, and as always, I welcome your comments.