Predictions 2008

If it is Christmas then it is time for the cfs predictions. Here is my crystal ball, and this time things are looking good. We are going for the gold this time around!

First legal disclaimer.

The following predictions are part of cfs' political satire and as always they are written using a Sardonic Style. I have posted my predictions on internet web sites for the past five years during the Christmas season. Some of my previous predictions were totally off the mark, but, I expect to have a good year with the 2008 predictions. My predictions are based on metaphysics, extrapolation, and the award-winning cfs proprietary guessing indicators. I will post a review by midyear, after the elections, and prior to the end of the year. This time we are going for the gold with prediction number ten, the 2008 cfs trifecta.

And now the 2008 cfs predictions.

1. THE WAR PRESIDENT. The war president will continue to drive the opposition crazy with his veto pen. He will continue to act like the macho cowboy to show the Democratic Party leadership that he is not your typical lame duck president and that he remains the decider. He will take credit for all the progress made in Iraq, and he will tell his fellow Americans that this time the mission is really accomplished, and that we have won the war against the islamofascist warriors in Iraq. His approval rating will be up by the end of the year; however, a large number of historians will make the Sunday morning television rounds labeling his administration as Nixonian and Jimmy Carteresque, in other words, a failed president.

2. MIDDLE EAST PEACE. Situation normal all fouled up. As directed by the war president, our failed Secretary of State will continue to travel around the Middle East with the purpose of buying hearts and minds. She will continue to fail. Due to the presidential elections in the United States, the majority of Americans will place the Middle East Peace in the back burner. No significant progress made in 2008. The Middle East Peace Initiative will be a turnover item for the next administration.

3. AMERICAN TROOPS IN IRAQ. The number of American fatalities will drop to less than 10 per month, with the majority of fatalities not combat related. Significant progress made across the board in Iraq, but Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will continue to insist that the war in Iraq is lost. The war president will out-flank his opposition, and will embarrass the Do-Nothing Democratic Congress by giving a de facto VI DAY (Victory in Iraq) proclamation prior to the general election. The war president will implement an accelerated withdrawal plan for American troops out of the country, but not as fast as demanded by the Do-Nothing Democratic Congress. Less than 130,000 troops in Iraq by the end of July. Less than 120,000 troops in Iraq before Election Day. Less than 110,000 troops in Iraq by the end of the year. Total troops withdrawal will be a turnover item for the next administration.

4. AMERICAN TROOPS IN AFGHANISTAN. The fighting will go on and our troops will receive the green light to openly chase and bag islamofascist warriors deep inside Pakistani territory. Several al Qaeda key personnel will be placed at room temperature and the whole al Qaeda organization will be constantly on the run for cover. Significant progress made by midsummer, but there will be no VA DAY (Victory in Afghanistan) proclamation by part of the war president. The Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will again embarrass himself and his party by declaring that the war in Afghanistan is lost. The war in Afghanistan will be a turnover item for the next administration.

5. THE US ECONOMY AND THE US MARKET. Americans will remain bullish on the American Economy. Things will be looking good by midyear, and this will be good news for the Republican Party candidates running for the Senate, the House of Representatives, and the White House. Inflation will remain under control, but oil prices will continue to be an issue. Housing market will make a slow recovery. The US dollar will slowly make a comeback. Dick Cheney will continue to smile all the way to the bank, but he will shift from an all-European bonds portfolio to an all-US bonds portfolio as a sign that the best is yet to come. Americans will feel good emotionally and economically. A slow start in Wall Street, but by the end of the first quarter things will be looking good. We will see a couple of market corrections, including a significant correction during the summer. Irrational exuberance will remain at check, and individual investors will remain optimistic about their globally diversified portfolios. All three US Stock Market Indexes - the Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 - will be up, but only by single digits, by the end of the year. Once again the losers will be the market timers.

6. DEMOCRATIC PARTY. The leaders of the party will be pumped-up and motivated during the early days of 2008. They will brag about their 50 states strategy, and their dreams about gaining seats on the Senate, gaining seats on the House of Representatives, and taking over White House. However, they will have a tough time selling their plan to the real independent voters. The Democratic Party leadership will face some embarrassing moments prior to, and during the Democratic Party Convention.

7. REPUBLICAN PARTY. The sex and corruption scandals will continue. The party will be demoralized and rudder-less during the first months of 2008, but during the second quarter the Republican Party leadership will get their stuff together, and the tide will shift to their side. The Republican Party will have a good convention. The Republican Attack Machine (RAM) will exploit the anti Hispanic immigrants sentiment, and will galvanize their religious right voters. The RAM will show the opposition how to play the Voters Suppression game. The Republican Party will go into the presidential election with momentum on their side.

8. DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES RESULTS. No guts, no air medals. Against all odds we are predicting the Democratic Party nominee here. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will make a good showing during the primaries, only to become Silver and Bronze medalists. Playing the gender card backfires on Hillary Clinton, her opponents take no prisoners during the nasty primaries, and she suffers an embarrassing defeat - she was in it to win it, but she lost it. John Edwards becomes the comeback kid and wins the Primaries Gold Medal. John Edwards picks a southern governor as his running mate. The Gold Medalist comes out of the primaries with a lot of money and a lot of endorsements. John Edwards becomes an easy target for the Right Wing Axis (RWA), easy target for the Republican Attack Machine (RAM), and easy target for the Republican Swift Boaters (RSB).

9. REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES RESULTS. No guts, no air medals. Against all odds we are predicting the Republican Party nominee here. After having a good time in 2007, the 911 candidate Rudy Giuliani suffers an embarrassing defeat during the primaries, however, he will continue to make millions of dollars exploiting the 911 events, and becomes the prime candidate for Secretary of Homeland Security. Mitt Romney gains support from the Religious Right after giving his word that the Western White House will not be located at Temple Square in Salt Lake City. The Christian Coalition, Focus on the Family, and the rest of the Morally Superior bunch will pinch their noses and jump on the Mitt Romney's band wagon because the God Talkers want to continue having a direct line with the White House. Mitt Romney wins the nomination and picks a southern governor as his running mate. Mitt Romney comes out of the primaries in good shape and with a lot of M&M (Mormon Money) for the general election.

10. THE 2008 CFS TRIFECTA. No guts, no air medals. Here is my last and most interesting prediction for 2008. We are going for the Gold. Things will be looking good for the Democratic Team at the start of the year. But then things will head south, and once again they will look disorganized, with a lot of finger pointing. The Democratic Party retains control of the US Senate. The Democratic Party retains control of the House of Representatives. The Republican Party retains control of the White House. The Republican Party candidate wins by getting 49.3 percent of the populous vote and 280 electors. A majority of the Democratic Party congress members, upset for losing their 8th of the last 11 presidential elections, will demand that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi resign or be removed from their respective leadership position. Recap of the 2008 cfs trifecta, (1) The Democratic Party retains the Senate, (2) The Democratic Party retains the House of Representatives, and (3) The Republican Party retains the White House.

Second legal disclaimer.

Thanks for reading the 2008 cfs predictions. Just a reminder, as I have said before, do not bet your home or your retirement money on the cfs predictions. However, you can take the 2008 cfs trifecta to the bank.

Time's Person Of The Year

Al Gore had an outstanding 2007 by winning an Oscar, an Emmy, and the Nobel Peace Prize - all during the same year!

Did Time Magazine get it right this time?

Vladimir Putin was picked at as Time's Person of the year for 2007.

No, Al Gore did not win the Person of the Year award, but he was a runner-up for the coveted award.

Al Gore had an outstanding year, winning an Oscar, an Emmy, and the Nobel Peace Prize - all in 2007.

Now we need a Republican to match those accomplishments, all in one year!

Another runner-up was our good General Petraeus.

Read more about Times Person Of The Year on this link.

North to Utah - Updated 12/21/2007

Is this heaven? For some it is. Arches National Park, in Moab, UTAH.

Update as of 2000 Pacific, 12/21/2007: I am is back from a long trip. I had a good time away from all. Currently I have no desire to start any conversation about politics or about our two war fronts for now, but I will post the award winning cfs 2007 2008 predictions next week. Have a Merry Christmas.

Original post

Well shipmates, it is that time again, time to place The Lowest Rated Blog in hot standby for a few days. The cfs guy is heading north to Utah and this trip will take me all the way to the northern border of the state and beyond. I will have no time to think about politicians ruining my country, about political predictions, or about the global war on terrorism. That is good! I look forward to good weather and good road conditions. And I will enjoy the scenery, the state of UTAH is awesome this time of the year. I welcome your comments, but, regretfully, I will not be able to post replies to any of your comments for a few days. Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

Political Recap 016 - Updated December 4th 2007

It used to be all about Iraq, Iraq, Iraq. But now that we have made some progress on the ground it is time for the Democratic Party to shift strategy. It is now about the economy, and things are about to get better on the economy, so, it is time to start looking for another theme.

Update as of 12/04/2007, 0730 Pacific. We continue to write about The Huckabee Surge. He is the man with the Big Mo on his side and I do expect to see the other candidates ganging up on him soon. As per the latest Rasmussen tracker Mike Huckabee has pulled to within a single percentage point on a mano-a-mano vs Hillary Clinton. He was behind the Democratic Party front runner by 8 points during August and September. The latest telephone survey shows Hillary Clinton earning 46 percent of the vote while Mike Huckabee attracts 45 percent of the vote. Also on another Rasmussen tracker Mike Huckabee is now within striking distance on the National Poll only 3 percentage points behind the National front runner Rudy Giuliani. Note, it is fun to watch The Huckabee Surge, but we do have a long way to go and there are no solid front runners on the Republican Party, anything can and will happen.

Update as of 12/03/2007, 0740 Pacific. Good news coming from the country of Venezuela. Marxist-Leninist leader Hugo Chavez lost the referendum which was supposed to give him the power to run for president for life. What is surprising is the fact that Hugo Chavez accepted defeat and I saw him on the Latino television channel giving a speech and telling his followers to accept the defeat and to remain calm. The vote was a close one, 51 percent NO and 49 percent SI. This is his first electoral defeat ever. Venezuelans can see the light at the end of the tunnel, but he is still their president.

Update as of 12/02/207, 1410 Pacific. Thanks Inspired for the Bible Trivia Award, it is now posted on the sidebar and it will stay there for a long time. Thanks again.

Update as of 12/02/2007, 0845 Pacific.

Mike Huckabee. We continue to talk about the Big Mo here, and Mike Huckabee is the man with the Big Mo on his side. This man knows about making a comeback, in 2003 he lost 110 pounds, and barely two years later he has completed 4 marathons - the 2005 and 2006 Little Rock Marathons, the Marine Corps Marathon and the New York City Marathon - the Road Runners Club of America named him its ‘Southern Region Runner of the Year’ and USA Track & Field has named him their ‘Athlete of the Week’ for the country. As a long distance runner I know what it takes to complete ONE marathon. But this post is about politics, so, let's go to Iowa - with only one month to go before the Iowa caucuses - Mike Huckabee is now leading the poll in that state with 29 percent, a stunning 17 point rise since October. He is leading Mitt Romney by 5 points, and Rudy Giuliani by 16 points. As of now he is looking like the comeback kid, but a lot can happen in the next 4 weeks.

Barack Obama. Another surprise here. Barack Obama is now leading the national Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in Iowa by 3 points. Barack Obama is leading with 28 percent of the vote, Hillary Clinton is second with 25 percent of the vote, John Edwards is in third place - but within striking distance - with 23 percent of the vote. The poll shows the race is still a dog fight between the top three contenders. And again, a lot can happen in the next 4 weeks.

Original Post

Hostage Crisis. Yesterday we had a hostage situation at Hillary Clinton's local headquarters in Rochester, New Hampshire. The law enforcers did an outstanding job taking care of the situation and it is my hope that we will not see this fiasco repeated during the primaries or during the general election. As far as candidate Hillary Clinton, when the hostages had been released and their captor arrested, Hillary Clinton strolled out of her Washington home to meet the media, she was in total control and looked calm in the face of crisis. Hillary Clinton showed that she can face disorder in a most orderly manner. Hillary Clinton took a negative and turned it into a positive. You just don't want to hear this, but yesterday Hillary Clinton looked and acted presidential.

The BIG MO. In sports we talk about a team having momentum, when everything seems to work to the team's advantage. The same thing happens in politics. Right now we have one candidate with the BIG MO on his side. This man was considered out of the race a long time ago. But then the tide shifted to his side. The former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee is generating buzz, curiosity and speculation, and not only that, he is leading now on the Iowa polls, plus he is looking good in New Hampshire. Everyone is now talking about having the momentum, and the trick here is to carry that momentum for next couple of weeks. If he wins in Iowa, and then places 2nd or 3rd in New Hampshire, then all bets are off on the Republican primaries. Remember the man from Hope Arkansas? - no, not this one, but Bill Clinton - will Mike Huckabee become the next man from Hope, the next comeback kid?

Republican Party in Iowa, Iowa, Iowa. So, how are things looking for the Republican Party candidates in Iowa? As per the latest Rasmussen tracker on the Iowa caucus, the polls are showing Mike Huckabee leading the pack with 28% of the vote. Mitt Romney is second with 25% support, and everyone else far behind. The National front runner Rudy Giuliani is getting just 12% of the vote in Iowa, and Fred Thompson is the only other candidate in double digits getting 11% of the vote. But what about John McCain - he is getting only 4% support in the latest Iowa poll. Compared to the prior poll, the trend shows that Mike Huckabee has gone up and just about everybody else has gone down. How good are things going for Mike Huckabee? Well, the poll represents a twelve point increase from a Rasmussen poll conducted earlier in the month.

Democratic Party in Iowa, Iowa, Iowa. As per the latest Rasmussen tracker, the Iowa Democratic caucuses remain a three-person race that is far too close to call. Okay, let's get down to the numbers. Hillary Clinton is leading with 27% of the vote, followed by Barack Obama with 25% of the vote. John Edwards is within striking distance with 24% of the vote, and a distant fourth is Bill Richardson with only 10% of the vote. The man everyone wants for Secretary of State, Joseph Biden is way back with only 4% of the vote. Virtually no change on the polls since the start of the month of November.

New Hampshire. On the Republican side of the house this is a one person race. The latest tracker shows Mitt Romney with 34% support and a 19-point lead. Making the most of his home field advantage, Mitt Romney has steadily increased his lead from 15points earlier in November, 9-points in October and 3-points in September. The poll shows a virtual 3-way tie for 2nd place between Rudy Giuliani at 15% of the vote, at 15% of the vote, and Mike Huckabee with 14% of the vote. The significant change here is this, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain went down on the poll, while Mike Huckabee has gained 4 more percentage points in the past month.

New Hampshire. On the Democratic Party side of the house Hillary Clinton's lead over Barack Obama is now measured in single digits. Per the latest Rasmussen tracker Hillary Clinton is getting 33% of the vote while Barack Obama is getting 26% of the vote. John Edwards is third with 15% of the vote. And then we have Bill Richardson getting 9% of the vote. In early November Hillary Clinton was leading by 10 points, the lead is now down to only 7 points and anything can happen in the next couple of weeks.

Thanks for reading, and as always, I welcome your comments.